Elyse Clawson, director of the Crime and Justice Institute in Boston, said researchers found that the state is at risk of experiencing a significant uptick in crime unless it develops strategies for dealing with the large group of prisoners scheduled to complete their prison sentences in the next few years.

Currently, 43 percent of offenders released from prison commit new crimes and wind up behind bars again within three years, the researchers found. And 57 percent of offenders hit the streets after a prison sentence with no supervision.

Clawson said state laws should be overhauled to require supervision for every released prisoner. Currently, only prisoners who have accepted an early release from prison as a parolee are closely supervised. Supervision should include substance abuse counseling, job training, and behavioral programs, she said.

"We're not advocating soft on crime, but smart on crime," Clawson said at a news conference in Boston yesterday.

The report said that research indicates that an intensive assessment of an offender's substance addictions, social behaviors, and other factors can predict within 85 percent accuracy the likelihood of the offender committing new offenses. Based on those assessments, state officials should spend heavily on the high-risk offender, Clawson said.

Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, who chaired a commission that recently reached similar conclusions, said intensive supervision is supported by the state Department of Correction and the state Parole Board.

"We have to do a better job, and there are numerous groups coalescing around this," said Healey, who attended the news conference, along with state Public Safety Secretary Edward A. Flynn.